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According to projections by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the number of air passengers in the Middle East is set to double over the next 20 years, reaching 530 million by 2043. This represents annual growth of 3.9%, slightly higher than the forecast world average. This rapid expansion is largely driven by rising demand in Asia, but the Middle East also plays a crucial role as a connecting hub.
The boom in air transport in the Middle East is largely attributed to its ideal geographical position. Stan Deal, then head of Boeing's commercial airplane division, declared in late 2023 that the Gulf was unique in its geography, making it possible to reach 80% of the world's population in just an eight-hour flight. This strategic location is exploited by airlines such as Emirates, flydubai, Etihad and several Saudi companies, which have invested heavily in modern, extensive fleets.
Middle Eastern airlines have not hesitated to place some of the most spectacular aircraft orders of recent years. Emirates, for example, has become one of the major buyers of the Airbus A380, an air giant capable of carrying large numbers of passengers over very long distances. These acquisitions enable the region's airlines to consolidate their position as intercontinental hubs, attracting travellers from all over the world for stopovers and connections to far-flung destinations.
The Middle East's ambitions are not limited to air fleets. Colossal infrastructure projects are underway, with giant airports rising from the sand. Saudi Arabia has announced the launch of Riyadh Air in 2025, with an initial order for 39 Boeing 787 long-haul jets. The project also includes the construction of a hub in Riyadh capable of handling 120 million passengers a year by 2030.
Dubai, for its part, is not resting on its laurels. The emirate has already announced plans to more than double its airport capacity, targeting 150 million passengers a year within 10 years, and up to 260 million eventually. This massive expansion is designed to solidify Dubai's position as a major global hub, capable of competing with the world's largest airports.
The region's rapid economic growth and growing population are key factors in this expansion. The Middle East is well placed to capture traffic from India and Indonesia, particularly for pilgrimages to Arabia. Experts point to the region's strong economic and demographic growth, crucial elements in supporting the growing demand for air travel.
Gulf airlines such as Emirates and Qatar Airways have successfully consolidated their image over the past two decades, moving closer to their Asian and Indian customers. Industry professionals note that they have also begun to take an interest in East Africa, South Africa and even West Africa. This geographic expansion enables them to diversify their customer base and strengthen their position in the global market.
With all these projects underway, the question arises: will there be room for everyone? The risk of overcapacity is a concern, but International Air Transport Association (IATA) remains optimistic. Kamil Alawadhi, the association's vice-president for Africa and the Middle East, asserts that airport expansion or construction projects are carefully prepared with airlines to avoid such a situation. He is convinced that the region will not experience overcapacity in the next 40 years.
The ambitions of the Gulf hubs have European airlines worried about losing market share, particularly to Asia. Gulf hubs showed their superiority at the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, getting back up and running immediately while European and American airports struggled to resume operations. Kamil Alawadhi emphasizes that the difference lies in the speed and efficiency of decision-making in the region.
The Middle East is redefining global air transport. With colossal investments, ambitious projects and an advantageous geographical position, the region is preparing to welcome millions more passengers. Gulf airlines are no longer content to keep pace, they are dictating the rules of the game. Their resilience, capacity for innovation and strategic vision for the future place them in the front line to capture a growing share of the global air travel market.
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